The year in China 2024
Our annual round-up of the year's political, international relations, economics and business, and society and culture news
In 2024, China marked the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic amid a pervasive sense of malaise at the country’s political and economic direction and the impending return of Donald Trump as president of its geopolitical rival.
Politics
After an unprecedented delay, the Communist Party convened its third plenum, which recommitted the party to an economic model that is principally state-led and investment-driven. Subsequent stimulus announcements culminating in the Central Economic Work Conference provided belated support for consumption.
A record number of senior officials were subject to discipline as Xi Jinping’s fight against corruption - and disloyalty - continued. Miao Hua, of the Central Military Commission, became the latest defense official to be suspended. Two former defense ministers were formally removed from the party; Qin Gang, the former foreign minister who disappeared amid allegations of impropriety, resigned from the National People’s Congress.
Beijing fumed as Lai Ching-te, who has previously declared himself to be a “pragmatic worker for Taiwanese independence,” assumed the island’s presidency while holding out hope for the return of the opposition KMT party, which is seen as friendlier towards Beijing. China maintained an aggressive tempo of military exercises and airspace incursions to signal its displeasure. Multiple international legislatures passed motions supporting Taiwan’s participation in international organizations. Nauru switched recognition to Beijing.
In Hong Kong, the Legislative Council passed a local national security law as convictions and sentencing of pro-democracy activists and a former newspaper editor continued. In Macau, Sam Hou Fai, a former judge, was selected to succeed Ho Iat Seng as chief executive, becoming the first leader of the special administration region to be born in mainland China.
A series of mass casualty attacks, some targeted towards foreigners, reflected both the pressures of a deteriorating economic outlook and the harms of virulent nationalism. A man rammed a truck into a crowd in Zhuhai, killing 35, in one of the worst attacks in recent years.
US-China relations
The United States under President Biden continued its strategy of managing competition with China by engaging in a series of high-level dialogues, even as it sharpened its use of economic statecraft and deepened partnerships with allies. At a final meeting between Xi and Biden during the November APEC summit, Xi, in comments seemingly directed towards the incoming Trump administration, warned the United States to “make the wise choice” in managing relations.
Additional US export controls targeting China’s semiconductor industry were criticized for their apparent loopholes, as efforts to enlist allies stalled. The White House finalized an order restricting outbound investment to China’s semiconductor, artificial intelligence, or quantum industries and announced its intent to curb products that avoid tariffs under a de minimus exemption. America continued efforts to boost domestic semiconductor production. More niche sectors were not beyond the grasp of its industrial policy ambitions: the administration announced new measures to replace China-made cranes at US ports. A court upheld legislation requiring ByteDance to divest the popular TikTok app or be banned early next year.
China was assessed to be responsible for an unprecedented and ongoing breach of the United States’ telecoms systems. China was also accused of multiple forms of interference in the US election, including targeting both campaigns’ communications, and directing social media campaigns against other politicians known for their anti-China views. Individuals with ties to the mayor and governor of New York were investigated for acting as agents of China.
An American pastor was freed from China after nearly twenty years in prison; three other Americans followed in a later swap. Chinese irregular migrants, escaping persecution and languishing economic prospects, became a more visible presence on the southern border.
International affairs
China maintained its support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, and capitalized on Israel’s multi-front conflict to align itself with those sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. North Korea’s deepening ties with Russia, to whom it has provided men and materiel, reinforced Beijing’s diminished influence over Pyongyang.
China contributed to military tensions throughout the Pacific. The Philippines and China clashed over territorial disputes in the South China Sea, raising concerns that the United States, a treaty ally of the Philippines, would be compelled to intervene were the clashes to turn deadly. Beijing, whom US military analysts assess will double its nuclear arsenal by 2030, tested an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time in more than forty years. Japan accused a Chinese spy plane of violating its air space, the first time such an incursion is known to have occurred.
In a rarer deescalatory step, China’s Xi and India’s Modi met for the first time since a 2020 border clash, as the latter sought to increase inbound investment from China to support its economy. The Vatican and China extended their agreement on the naming of bishops. While on a trip to Latin America, which included a state visit to Brazil, Xi Jinping inaugurated a major port in Peru which is majority owned by the Chinese firm Cosco.
Economy and business
China’s economy remained challenged by anemic consumer confidence, a languishing real estate market, and deteriorating government finances, even as its manufacturing sector intensified competitiveness concerns in the United States and Europe.
As pressures on the economy continued, the government announced multiple stimulus measures intended to shore up the housing sector, banks, and local governments. Stocks soared on initial indications of a change of course but grew disappointed in the absence of more decisive steps to boost household demand.
The United States criticized China for externalizing the costs of its industrial overcapacity onto other economies. In particular, China’s electric vehicle industry raced past global competitors, growing share in their market and threatening global legacy automakers in their home markets. The European Union imposed tariffs in response to alleged industrial subsidies. The United States imposed both a tariff and effectively banned Chinese vehicles based on alleged national security threats inherent to their self-driving software. Multiple developing countries, led by Brazil, also imposed barriers on various Chinese products.
Consumer-facing multinationals in China struggled, from luxury goods to Starbucks, whose major competitor, Luckin Coffee, was now poised to enter the US market. Guotai Junan Securities and Haitong Securities announced plans to merge; the country’s securities regulator announced ambitions to have multiple globally competitive investment banks by 2035. Huawei launched HarmonyOS NEXT, its self-developed alternative to Android and iOS, which is poised to become a leading platform throughout developing economies. China ordered Apple to remove WhatsApp and Threads from the country’s App Store.
Society and culture
China’s marriage and birth rates continued to decline, even as some local governments began calling women to encourage them to get pregnant. A court case upheld a ban on unmarried women freezing their eggs. The country also raised its retirement age and ended foreign adoptions.
In the Olympics, held in Paris, China and the United States tied for the most gold medals. Yao Ming retired as president of the Chinese Basketball Association. Black Myth: Wukong, a video game inspired by the 16th century novel, Journey to the West, became China’s first global hit. Fan Bingbing starred in her first film since a 2018 tax scandal.
China successfully landed a spacecraft on the far side of the moon and returned rock samples to Earth. America’s Smithsonian National Zoo welcomed two new giant pandas.
Notable books included an examination of China’s rise through the lens of business strategy; an assessment of Xi Jinping’s outlook by former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd; and a new account by Peter Hessler of China’s people in transition.
Song Binbin, an iconic Red Guard who later emigrated to America, died at 77; Cheng Pei-Pei, a martial arts icon, died at 78; Henry Keswick, former taipan of Jardine Matheson, died at 86; Ye Jiaying, doyenne of Chinese classical poetry, died at 100.
A key legacy of the Biden administration will be its embrace of industrial policy and, with it, an implied loss of confidence in markets as a driver of American competitiveness, prosperity, and, ultimately, security. Despite the already uncertain outcomes of this experiment, further threatened by the incoming Trump administration, developments that reaffirm America’s core strengths have continued to play out in parallel. American tech companies and universities - thanks in no small part to significant talent from China - are the undisputed leaders in artificial intelligence. American companies are leading not just as innovators, but also as adopters of the technology. In response to the extraordinary energy needs artificial intelligence requires, American firms are making transformational commitments to energy infrastructure investment. And all of this would be impossible were it not for the graphics processing units which for years primarily served the consumer video game market. China’s leadership may disdain a consumer-driven economy as decadent and inefficient and yet it is ultimately the consumer that is driving America forward.
The return of Donald Trump as president will bring with it renewed volatility, as his mix of hawkish and market-oriented advisers compete for influence and navigate the president’s own transactional instincts and personal affinity for Xi Jinping. (Republicans eyeing both the 2026 midterms and the 2028 election will also complicate Trump’s room for maneuver.) On tariffs, the key question is neither when - nor how aggressively - the Trump administration imposes them, but how will Beijing respond. It is unclear if there is a package that both countries can agree: China is reportedly floating offers to buy more Treasuries and US goods, make direct investments in the US, and support peace efforts in Ukraine.
Currency devaluation that results in further spillover of China’s exports into third countries may drive those countries to further push back against China’s industrial dominance. It would be a mistake to see this coincidence of interests as an alignment with America. Regardless of how the next American administration approaches its international partnerships, many nations see Trump’s re-election as confirmation that the United States is no longer willing to bear the costs of global leadership. While their responses may not be immediately apparent, many of these countries will quietly begin, if they have not already, efforts to reduce their reliance on America — a shift that, over time, will challenge a major pillar of its power.
Meanwhile, Xi's navigation of the Trump era will be evaluated through the lens of the 2027 Party Congress. As he enters the new year, Xi leads a party that is more pervasive yet still vulnerable to corruption, an economy that is increasingly sophisticated yet fragile, a populace that supports him even as elites grow more frustrated, and a country that wields greater global influence yet is regarded with growing wariness. China, more than ever, is a nation of intense contradictions.